Since last week, more and more uncertainties on the stock market have faded away. The VIX index, often referred to as the “fear indicator”, has even dropped from the levels of 40 to almost 20, since the end of October. Several stock market indexes, such as the American S&P 500, set new records. The European stock exchanges have also seen significant profits in recent weeks, but no new records have been set so far.
In September, the anxiety on the stock markets increased, resulting in increased price volatility. Technology stocks in particular, but also financial stocks and the energy sector were (again) on a sell-off.
In August, we saw markets continue to rise, especially in the US, and even the S&P500 index set a new record. In early September, however, the market tipped over and mainly technology values, which were hard to keep up with in August, showed a correction.
The financial markets have been calm for the past month. The stock markets continue to perform well while the bond markets remain relaxed. Hopes for additional support measures are laying a foundation as the economy picks up, especially in Europe.
The stock markets are still moving up. The massive stimulus from governments and central banks continues to provide support as the economy crawls out of a deep valley and hopes for a corona vaccine increase. The return of some COVID-19 hotspots, while creating uncertainty and increased price volatility, does not seem to be able to undermine the market optimism.
The stock markets continue their march at high speed. The Nasdaq index even reached a new absolute record. The massive stimulus from governments and central banks combined with an optimism that the economy can crawl out of the valley faster than expected, now that Covid-19 is losing strength, continues to drive buyers. There are, however, a number of remarks that can be made.
Since the low points in March, the stock markets have started a strong recovery trend, mainly thanks to the massive intervention of central banks. Whether or not the stock markets have gotten ahead of themselves is a question which must be considered in the light of the numerous challenges. Therefore, caution is still recommended.
The markets have calmed down for the time being. The spread of the coronavirus seems to have slowed down and the week started with solid profits. However, aren’t we getting ahead of ourselves? The situation remains highly uncertain in several areas, while the economic impact, reflected in the huge increase in US unemployment, is gradually becoming visible.
Update March 31, 2020
The past trading days, the markets managed to recover. The enormous stimulus package from the U.S. government has been able to stabilise the markets, despite the further expansion of the coronavirus. The question is whether this will be sufficient as a shield for the countless bad new on the economy and health still coming our way.
Update End March 2020
The past trading days were marked by enormous price movements. Halfway through last week, the losses were still high, but since several central banks, with the Fed in the lead, and quite a few governments have pulled out the big guns, the buyers are slowly getting the upper hand again. The question is, of course, whether recent profits will remain tenable as the coronavirus marches on unabated and more and more countries go in lockdown. Especially in the U.S. we fear an escalation, while the markets don’t seem to take this into account to a significant extent.
At the beginning of January, everything on the stock exchange was still good and records were set. Now, barely two months later, we are in a bear market where very volatile days have become the norm. The uncertainty about the spreading corona virus and the collapse of the oil market caused panic among investors. Meanwhile, everyone agrees that this virus will have a strong temporary economic impact. But many wonder if is this not an overreaction of the markets.
At the start of the new year, investors seem to have only one good resolution, which is to continue the record hunt on the stock exchanges. Even high geopolitical tensions do not succeed in stopping the march. The optimism is great and there are several reasons for this.
The markets clearly have been more optimistic since last month as a trade agreement between the US and China seems to be back on track, the Brexit turmoil has briefly faded and the economic outlook has slightly improved. Wall Street is on a record-hunt and most indices in Europe reached the highest levels in recent years. Long-term interest rates also rose again in the US and even in Europe.
Over the past few weeks, the markets have shown two sides. At first, it appeared that nothing could stand in the way of further progress, especially because the market hoped for a speedy solution to the trade conflict between the US and China. Fear of recessions finally caused the most profits to be wiped out in just a few sessions.
Macroeconomic Outlook Q4 2019
Anyone who thought that the financial markets would take it easy during the summer months was up for a challenge. Huge price movements were recorded on both the stock and bond markets. However, towards the end of August, the market the market straightened out and since then the various equity indices have not looked back…
Macroeconomic Outlook Q3 2019
In Q2, markets were carried away by the changing policies of the central banks, the tweets of US President Trump, the ups and downs of the Chinese-US trade war and the generally weaker macro figures.
Macroeconomic Outlook Q2 2019
The first quarter of 2019 was one of the best quarters in the stock markets over the past decade. Given the huge uncertainty among investors at the end of 2018, few would have dared to hope for such a revival. The turnaround at the Federal Reserve, the conviction that trade matters will work out between China and the US …
Macroeconomic Outlook Q1 2019
For many investors, 2018 is a year to be quickly forget. Almost all asset classes declined, except for unattractive government bonds, while volatility reappeared after years of absence. Especially during the month of December, traditionally rather calm, price movements (and losses) were very marked.
Macroeconomic Outlook Q4 2018
On the financial markets, the relative calm of the summer months has definitely disappeared. The Italian political crisis is rising again while the US long-term interest rates increases. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, almost all stock markets lost ground. Is the tone set for the rest of the year or is it just another temporary dip? The investment team of ShelteR keeps a close eye on various elements in order to refine its strategy in the coming weeks and months.
Macroeconomic Outlook Q3 2018
Financial markets remain traditionally calm during summer. But given today’s market challenges, it is not certain that this trend will continue in the coming months. The trade war in particular caused some tensions at the end of June. In the meantime, the EU and the United States have reached an agreement that should alleviate tensions between Brussels and Washington. But on the contrary, the trade war could escalate between US and China.
Macroeconomic Outlook Q2 2018
2018 started off quite spectacularly. Markets were confronted with a sharp drop in prices, an increase of long-term interest rates and a sudden increase in volatility. Since a long time, investors were again confronted with market uncertainty. But in recent weeks, despite the geopolitical situation and the threatening trade war, markets have brightened up again. Investors, however, are shifting their attention to the reporting season and the first figures have already confirmed optimism.
Macroeconomic Outlook Q1 2018
First of all, we wish you a prosperous and stable 2018! May health and happiness be with you this year.
In this first newsletter of the year, we express our views on the financial markets which we use as guidelines for the management of our investment funds. The intention of this newsletter is therefore to inform our investors even better about the developments on the different markets.
We offer access to various asset classes and markets through our investment solutions and UCITS funds. Next to that, we also offer discretionary management services.